Tuesday, June 11, 2013

Output - Hub Town Hall Presentation 14 May 2013

At the Hub Town Hall meeting on 14 May Helen presented the output of this foresight process to the Hub core team and member community. Check out the slides here:

Presentation hub futures reporting from Adam Jorlen

Other outputs from this process were posted on our Yammer page...

Catalyst > Experiment > Structure

Explaining each 'sub-plot' to enable others to write a meaningful/contextual narrative (taking Option 1):
Catalyst = Discover serendipitiously or from intentional scanning an issue, concern or opportunity that indicates a useful new body of knowledge or skill, if only we took the time to figure out what it was about and thus replicate it.
Experiment = With a specified hypothesis or concept, experiment to see what is possible, probable, useful, desirable. Apply and battle-test the knowledge or skill in real contexts to learn what works and doesn't, and develop those useful tips/hints that make things really stick.
Structure = Form the knowledge/skill into a format-mode that can be easily shared-digested or taught-learnt. Get the knowledge mobilised to be useful to a broader audience, and start a groundswell of change.

Q: What's significant about this for Hub futures? A: That the knowledge or skills are for the 'new work' or 'new way of being' we want to encourage, enable or sponsor.

By Helen Palmer


hub.[next] ~ a weave using the fragments of {intergenerations, education, politics, and leadership}. hub.[next] is a placeholder for what’s next.

In 2013 people arrive at HubMelbourne to actualize their “call to adventure”.
In 2014 and beyond, hub.[next] acts as a catalyst and generative change lab for both mainstream and edgestream organizations to act-out new calls to adventure.

While more people came TO HubMelbourne in 2013, hub.[next] will go TO more people in 2014 and beyond. hub.[next] touches society at more levels and in more dramatic ways than ever before. This reflects the dramatic change in hub membership ... not only in quantative reach, but also in the nature of the meshworks of peer-to-peer and edge-to-edge connections that share experiences of new ways-of-being.

As part of a reboot, three touchpoints of hub.[next] are hub.[K12], hub.[PP] and hub.[Igen].  hub.[K12] is an education movement that is touching and transforming education opportunities. hub.[PP] is a public policy lab (loosely based on MindLab in Denmark) that is touching political landscapes and transforming the terrain of political engagement. hub.[Igen] is an intergenerational meshwork of connections that connects generational modes of wisdom and transforms leadership capacity.

hub.[Inc] is still an innovation change lab.  Within a variety of incubator spaces, a diverse range of entrepreneurial and innovation startups extend their reach across geographic (and other) boundaries. hub.[next] has global reach and is active within and across global regions that connects Australia with Asia and beyond.

Within each new touchpoint of hub.[next] leadership practice is based on a liquid democracy model, ensuring the nature of leadership touches the original intent of democratic agency. It also ensures the day-in-the-life experience of hub.[next] is one of simplicity, empathy and agility. 

By Neil Houghton

Hub Wanderers

‘Clearly, the Bedouins are closer to being good than sedentary people.’ 
- Ibn Khaldun

I am writing something around another sub plot going from sedentary/stationary Hub spaces onto a circus-like, nomadic existence  where hubbers are moving between different spaces in the world, aided by  wearable technology and a system of seamless transfer solutions for  accommodation, transport, income, childcare, school etc. This scenario  is based on the wanderer archetype.

 To be continued…

 By Adam Jorlen

Friday, May 3, 2013

Prospection 30 April 2013

The 'prospection' stage in a foresight process answers the question 'What Might Happen?'

We played with two foresight methods tonight to explore what might happen to the Hub in the future.
The first was a visioning exercise, where the group 'travelled back and forward in time'. We imagined the Donkey Wheel House where this group works from (pictured below) and the activities, people, smells, sounds and feelings here in the past and future.

A vision is a compelling, inspiring statement of a preferred future which we want to create.

The second method we used is probably the most popular and well-known foresight method - scenarios.

Following Neil's suggestion we used an inductive scenario technique, scenario weaving, based on futurist Willis Harman's 'Harman Fan'. Neil's 'Scenario Weaving' is however different from traditional scenario techniques as it is not about time or chronology – rather about deeper understanding or texture.

Five sub-plots which came out of the visioning exercise (and earlier work) were mapped on a scenario field, as shown in the image here.

The five sub-plots (and possibly more) as well as the cross-weaves (how the sub-plots interact with each other on different levels) will now be developed in a shared document in our Yammer group.

When the output from the scenario work is finished, we will post it here on the blog.

Friday, April 19, 2013

#hubfutures Interpretation session 16 April 2013

Copyright: Tony Smith (@ynotds)

“The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant.

We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift."

Albert Einstein

In Tuesday's session we played a bit with our intuitive minds to get deeper down in the collective intelligence and creativity of the #hubfutures group. 

After a brief introduction by Adam on the interpretation phase of the generic foresight process, we continued our dialogue around surprises from the past week. 

The fragments, sentences and key thoughts that were mapped on the 'iceberg' in last week's session were then used to prompt further insights and surprises. 

Jan Jelinek's "Music for Fragments" served as background music during eight minutes of reflection and individual work.

We all then spoke about what came up for us during this , and used images to explain new insights, surprises and possible stories for the future of Hub.

Some of the metaphors for Hub that emerged are illustrated in this image:

Until next session we will continue to explore and find questions. Questions which will be answered by scenario logics...

Friday, April 12, 2013

#hubfutures ANALYSIS session 9 April 2013

The purpose of our Hub Futures analysis session was to make sense of all the scanning we had done in the past month. Some of the scan hits are found in a shared Google Spreadsheet which is continuously updated with new observations and insights.

The analysis phase in a foresight process attempts to answer the question "What seems to happen?" and our objective of this session was to come up with a list of fragments which will later form stories, or scenario logics. The image here by Neil shows the process and how our thoughts from the scanning phase will lead to patterns, clusters, convergences and hopefully later; questions which will be the base for our scenarios. 

After a dialogue process with rapid two-minute pitches of scanning work to Brad, followed by general discussion we came up with lots of fragments. These were put on a whiteboard and clustered in a Causal Layered Analysis.

This futures method, by Sohail Inayatullah, allows us to take a layered view of the scanning fragments, and to get a deeper understanding of what lies beneath them. As the "iceberg" figure below illustrates, there are four levels of deepening. The litany level deals with the unquestioned, official view of something. The second layer looks at the underlying systemic drivers and trends, such as socio-economic, technical, political and environmental factors. The next layer concerns values and worldviews, and finally, at the deepest level, causal layered analysis looks at deeper myths and metaphors.

The analysis as shown here is what came to mind in Tuesday's session. The scan hits can be placed differently as they will mean different things to different analysts. Some hits were not placed on the iceberg as they came up in discussions after the dialogue, or didn't fit into any of the layers at the time.

Use the keyboard short cuts CTRL+ and CTRL- to zoom in and out as the font is quite small in this image....

Some ideas, clusters started to emerge:

 Until next time (16/4); look for surprises... they might be convergences, contradictions or other...

Thursday, March 21, 2013

Towards a Peer-to-Peer Technium

Last night Tony Smith gave a talk on how the convergence of Michel Bauwen's peer-to-peer theories and Kevin Kelly's Technium might impact our future.

After the thought-provoking presentation (slideshare here), we had a conversation about the consequences and implications for coworking spaces in general and Hub Melbourne in particular. Hub Australia CEO Brad Krauskopf shared his views on the future of Hub.

Some of the themes that were discussed around the table last night:

* What has Hub in common with jazz, movie making and the building industry?

* What is the main asset in a coworking space?

* How disintermediation, i.e. the removal of intermediaries, creates a new business paradigm.

* Coworking: From global connectedness and local impact to global connectedness and global impact through distributed networks?

* Talent  and asset mapping

* How can coworking spaces be used for community building in rural and suburban areas?

* From coworking to co-learning?

* Does the Hub play a role in leader development of its members?

* The importance of hosting in social spaces

* The emergence of a coworking economy

The audio file with the recording of the discussion is found here.

Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Designing a Futures Wall

Today we started to design the #hubfutures wall. This space, based on a comment by Neil in a previous session, is a physical space where thoughts about the future of Hub will be posted.

Yesterday, we ran in to Ella from tincan who recommended us to check out artist Candy Chang's website for inspiration. Cindy's work combines installation art with social activism, and aims to encourage people to engage with public spaces to let their voices be heard.

That sounds a bit like what we want to do.

So far, the #hubfutures wall includes functions for:
 - Clustering scan hits according to a modified PESTEL framework with colour coded themes (culture/values, technology, business/economy, art, sociopolitics, environment and others).
- Reactions, insights, comments and feedback
- Action
- Peer-to-peer learning facilitation (through stickers where people can post according to an "Ask me more about this" template)
- Plot of scan hits on a time line

We'll continue the work on the wall next week.

Wednesday, February 27, 2013

#hubfutures explorers INPUT SESSION 26/2/13

This session started with Adam doing a brief presentation on the input part of strategic foresight work. Please see the SlideShare presentation here:

We then did a brief activity around the first "homework" - to bring three "things" which may impact the future of Hub. These were discussed in pairs with three questions by futurist Zia Sardar in mind:

  1. Does it make sense?
  2. Who benefits? 
  3. Where is this going?

All "things" were put on post-it notes, which were then mapped on a V STEEP framework on the whiteboard. Similar to a PESTEL analysis, this framework can be used to see how macro-environmental issues are related. Futurist Marcus Barber's V STEEP includes values, social, technological, economic, environmental and political factors.

The "scan hits" on the post-its were:

Tom and Neil reflected on Hub in its larger ecosystem and possible scenarios to shift from "old" to "new" Hub.

Neil suggested to use a V STEEP matrix where scan hits can be located in more than one of these sections to show relationships and overlaps.

This was followed by a discussion around our second "homework" task - to look at the Hub Ethos and see what came to mind for us. Julien provided a document about "Hub values – and non-values", and Neil some graphical representations of how the Hub Ethos and might develop.

Helen facilitated a discussion around the ethos and its potential development:

Some reflections from this discussion around our ethos and values:
  • "Hub makes it easier than it's ever been to put your values out in the world" (Tony)
  • A first-tier bias?
  • What is game changing?
  • Look at Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi's article The creative personality – 10 antithetical traits in relation to Julien's sometimes seemingly contradictory "Hub values – and non-values".
  • Completion of projects might need more focus. Do we need Hub forums for bragging? HUBris?
  • What are the possible paths and doorways Hub can take?

A brief overview of the Integral Four Quadrant model followed. This will be used later to frame our scanning hits.


And finally we started to plan the scanning work until next session. There are three framing decisions we each should reflect on:
1. Scale: What time frame are we looking at? We agreed that when we scan the environment of Hub we will keep three time frames in mind; 5 years, 10 years and 25 years ahead. Where are things going and how might things play out over those times?
2. Scope: How broadly are we scanning? Are we looking at Hub Melbourne, Hub Australia, Hub in Asia or Hub in a global perspective? This is another dimension each futures explorer should consider. We do not need to decide on this immediately, but it might emerge in a couple of weeks of scanning. 

3. Types of futures: What type of futures are we scanning?

From Maree Conway's Thinking Futures
Some scanning objectives:
  1. Arranged a Delphi in the community on Yammer with #hubfutures
  2. Made physically  visible the #hubfutures exploration for other Hubbers to contribute to on the physical Futures Wall
  3. Involved and sourced wisdom from the Hub Wisdom Council in person or via email
  4. Gained a broader perspective from the world (open foresight) via Twitter #hubfutures
  5. Engaged and involved global Hubbers through National Field.
Within a couple of weeks, please let the group know on Yammer what area you'd like to help scan.

And don't forget to tag everything with #hubfutures.